National poll reveals CD-5 race a “dead heat” between Bice and Nelson
Jena Nelson and Stephanie Bice essentially tied; race within margin of error
A new GBAO (gbaostrategies.com) poll of Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District finds Jena Nelson tied with Representative Stephanie Bice at 48% once voters are educated about the candidates.
On the initial question, before respondents learn about each candidate, Nelson trails by five points, within the margin of error. However, Nelson wins a majority of independents (55%) and is more popular than Bice, with favorables better than two to one (21% favorable, 9% unfavorable) while Bice is barely above water (39% to 38%). Among voters who know Nelson, she leads 61% to 30%.
“Every time I sit down with folks across this district, I hear the same thing: they want someone who shows up and listens,” Nelson said. “This poll tells me what I already know from directly engaging with voters. They’re ready for a change. We’re going to keep showing up in every corner of this district between now and November.”
The poll also finds Bice deeply unpopular with independents (20% favorable, 51% unfavorable) and Donald Trump underwater in a district voters say he carried by 13 points (42% favorable, 53% unfavorable). Democrats hold a clear enthusiasm edge, with 89% rating themselves a 10 out of 10 on motivation to vote in November, compared to 71% of Republicans.
National polling firm GBAO surveyed 500 likely 2026 general election voters from September 17 to 20, 2026, through live telephone interviews and text-to-web. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The full polling memo is below.
Jena Nelson is a lifelong educator and the 2020 Oklahoma Teacher of the Year. Over more than 16 years in the classroom, she helped her students earn more than $4 million in scholarships. In 2022, she earned more statewide votes than any other Democrat as a candidate for State Superintendent and actually won within the recently gerrymandered CD-5. Jena and her husband Karl have been married for 21 years and are proud parents of two.
Learn more at www.JenaNelson.com.