Will Michael Bloomberg enter race as an independent?

For more than a month, rumors have swirled around former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. According to the Washington Post, “The billionaire is considering making an independent bid for the presidency, a move that could provide yet another wild turn in a 2016 race that has already seen more than its share of them.”

“Bloomberg has explored the possibility before,” according to a January story in the Post. But he is “always making a pragmatic calculation of whether winning is feasible. Three associates said that several factors have convinced him that a run outside of the Republican and Democratic party processes is worth another look.”

Bloomberg’s fear was that the GOP would nominate a polarizing figure – Donald Trump or Ted Cruz – as their candidate for President. The Post continued, “The other factor is that the Democratic front-runner, Hillary Clinton, may turn out to be a weaker candidate than was once expected — and might even lose the nomination to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a self-described democratic socialist whose mainstream appeal is in question.”

Both possibilities exist after the early caucuses and primaries. Although Clinton has won more contests, Sanders has been making a strong showing, revealing weakness in her appeal to voters, even in her own party.

The Bloomberg boomlet has continued, most recently in The Daily Beast which ran a column yesterday by Jonathan Alter titled “Here’s How Michael Bloomberg Become President.” Alter opined that with Clinton’s win in Nevada last Saturday, a Trump-Sanders contest is “increasingly unlikely but still plausible.”

In a “future news” story, dated January 20, 2017, Alter writes, “Michael Bloomberg’s path to the presidency in 2016 marked a strange climax to an insane election year. It wouldn’t have been possible without both political parties falling prey to deeply unpresidential nominees. By the time Bloomberg prevailed last month in a nail-biting test of arcane provisions in the U.S. Constitution, 2016 had taken its place with the elections of 1800, 1824, and 1876 as the only presidential contests in American history resolved by the House of Representatives.”

But not so fast. Politico reported Monday that Bloomberg’s trial balloon isn’t rising yet. “In the bar of the Four Seasons Hotel off Park Avenue one recent evening, the talk among senior bankers turned, as it often does these days, to the prospects of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg making a run for the White House.

“The group, which included a senior private equity banker and a top executive from a blue-chip investment bank, sipped cabernet and broke down the chances. The consensus view: Bloomberg doesn't have a shot. ‘Unless it's Bernie versus Trump,’ one titan in attendance said.”

Voters apparently agree. An AP story today delivered mixed news for a potential Bloomberg bid. A story by Jonathan Lemire and Emily Swanson, AP writers, said:

“Most Americans, regardless of ideology, say they have no interest in voting former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg into the White House.

“That's according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

“Six in 10 Democrats and Republicans alike rule out Bloomberg in a general election. The total saying they wouldn't vote for him is the highest level for any candidate in the field.

“The media billionaire is set to decide next month if he'll launch a third-party bid.

“While the poll points to a daunting road for him, it also suggests that a Bloomberg candidacy could not be merely shrugged off by the two parties.

“With more than one-third at least open to backing him, Bloomberg may have the potential to become a spoiler in a close fall election.”

Supporters said that by mid-March, the November contest should be clearer and Bloomberg will make a decision. The Politico story continued, “'The mayor doesn't play to lose. I see a very unlikely scenario of him entering the race unless he has calculated that he is going to win,' said Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of investment firm SkyBridge Capital and a backer of former candidate Jeb Bush. 'That means in my mind that non-establishment players have to be the nominees of both parties and he has to have a really good sense that there is a path up the middle that can get him a win and that means an Electoral College win.'

“This caveat is often offered by Wall Streeters who dismiss the idea that Bloomberg could run against Trump or Texas Senator Ted Cruz as the GOP nominee and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee and force the race into the House of Representatives. Under this very unlikely scenario, many bankers say, the conservative GOP House would hold its nose for Trump or Cruz rather than select a pro-gun control, pro-choice environmental activist as the next president.

"’If he runs with Hillary in the race he could wind up being the guy responsible for making Donald Trump president and he doesn't like Trump at all — I don't think he wants to go down in history as being the guy who elected Trump,' said one senior investment banker at a bulge bracket firm. ‘ But he's got more than enough money to move forward now and buy himself the option to run if there appears to be a real window for him.’"

It appears the drama in the 2016 Presidential race is far from over. Stayed tuned.

The Gayly – February 24, 2016 @ 9:15 a.m.